The correct result of every Premier League gameweek six fixture revealed, according to statistics

xg explains

With the help of expected goals, we take a look at how the weekend’s matches should have finished

Another week of Premier League football has been and gone, and Liverpool remain the only team with a 100 per cent record.

The Reds made light work of Southampton to continue their perfect start to the season, with Chelsea dropping points at West Ham to fall behind Jurgen Klopp’s side in the title race.

Jurgen Klopp’s Liverpool are flying high at the top of the league

Jurgen Klopp’s Liverpool are flying high at the top of the league

Elsewhere, there were wins for Arsenal and Manchester City, while Wolves and Fulham came from behind to nick points off Manchester United and Watford respectively.

It was, as always, a thrilling weekend of top flight action, but were the results backed up by the performances?

‘Expected goals’ is a statistic used to work out how many goals should be scored in a match, with every shot taken given an ‘expected goal’ value based on the difficulty of the attempt.

Based on a number of factors including distance from goal, type of shot and number of defenders, the ‘expected goal’ value reveals the likelihood a specific shot will end in a goal; the higher the value, the more likely a goal should be scored from that shot.

The ‘expected goal’ value of every shot in a game is used to calculate the ‘expected goals’ of a match. Click here to find out more about the calculations used to work out xG.

Joao Moutinho scored a fine equaliser as Wolves held Man United at Old Trafford

Joao Moutinho scored a fine equaliser as Wolves held Man United at Old Trafford

Should a team end with a higher xG than actual goals scored, it is probable they were wasteful in front of goal due to poor finishing or an in-form opposition goalkeeper. If the real goals scored is higher than the xG, the team may have been lucky to score so many in that match, or come up against a poor defence.

So, how did every team perform compared to their xG in the sixth round of Premier League matches? Find out below thanks to shot-based expected goals statistics from FiveThirtyEight.com


Fulham vs Watford

Real score: 1-1
xG score: 1.5-1.6

Liverpool vs Southampton

Real score: 3-0
xG score: 1.7-0.4

Mo Salah rediscovered his scoring boots on Saturday

Mo Salah rediscovered his scoring boots on Saturday

Manchester United vs Wolves

Real score: 1-1
xG score: 0.6-1.2

Burnley vs Bournemouth

Real score: 4-0
xG score: 2.3-1.1

Crystal Palace vs Newcastle

Real score: 0-0
xG score: 1.0-0.3

Martin Dubravka put in a solid performance to keep Crystal Palace at bay

Martin Dubravka put in a solid performance to keep Crystal Palace at bay

Leicester vs Huddersfield

Real score: 3-1
xG score: 1.8-0.7

Cardiff vs Manchester City

Real score: 0-5
xG score: 0.1-3.3

Brighton vs Tottenham

Real score: 1-2
xG score: 0.8-2.1

Harry Kane returned to the scoresheet by converting a penalty

Harry Kane returned to the scoresheet by converting a penalty

West Ham vs Chelsea

Real score: 0-0
xG score: 0.8-1.7

Arsenal vs Everton

Real score: 2-0
xG score: 0.9-1.0

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